I’ve been looking closely at Christian Welch as a possible POD for 2021. At a price of $537k, BE of only 40 and very low ownership at 3.4%, Welch presents value.
His average of 40 incorporates a slower start to 2020 which included his return from an ACL injury. However, from round 9, Craig Bellamy cranked up his minutes to reflect his standing as an important middle forward in their team. During th
e regular season from round 9 to 20 he averaged 46 coming from 51 minutes. In the finals, we really saw his true quality and he averaged 50 from 51 minutes from the 3 finals games. In-game 3 of the Origin series, Welch also scored 43 from only 37 minutes to continue his impressive PPM against elite competition.
For Welch to become significantly relevant he will need to average again around 50 minutes. In trying to determine his minutes, the other regula
r starters are recently appointed co-captains Jesse Bromwich averaged 48 minutes and Dale Finucane averaged 52 minutes. During the regular season recently departed Tino Fa’asuamaleaui averaged 46 mins per game, Nelson Asofa-Solomona averaged 36 minutes and Brandon Smith averaged 49 minutes when starting from the interchange. When they all played in the grand final, Tino would receive only 20 minutes and Smith 33 minutes.
So given Welch was playing 50 minutes during the semi-finals and grand final you’d have to favour this trend to continue which would be favourable in a decision to buy Welch given his track record at the back end of the season and a current pricing which reflects an average of only 40 from last season.
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