We have to remember if we are playing overall that it is the long race we are in, much like the Melbourne Cup. Picking up Keary would be akin to going for the whip too early! How so? Lets assume we have between 14-18 trades remaining, we need to think how will our team end up looking. At this stage we might have between 8-11 guns that will not be leaving our team. Lets assume we need to pick up 7 more Guns, that could take 14 trades to get them, throw in some contingencies and you see we are tight on trades.
Getting Keary would be a quick hit, even though his last 5 game average is 52. He currently isn't ranked in the top 10 halves. At the end of season you should have Cleary and a DCE, Munster, Reynolds, Hughes or even a D Brown or Moses, with Hynes in the WFB spot. So if you chase Keary this week it may cost you two trades. If you hold off on the whip and wait till after this week then you can place one of the aforementioned players in your team and they will play the same amount of games as Keary yet average more. So if you hold off and get Reynolds then you would get 78 extra points. Munster 130 although this is with considerable risk of resting.
If you do go for Keary then you better plan on keeping for the season. This same reasoning can be applied to most players this week, and why for me the Angus Burger is looking delicious as he should gun it till seasons end, but in saying that you may be better holding off if you haven't go IPAP yet.
Yes we might not gain as many ranks as we want this week, but in round 17 and beyond you will come home like that great horse KIWI.
Perfect analogy!! I wouldn't want him in my final team.