And welcome back to the final edition for 2023 of The Mercato, a long form series for Talking League. Round 27 has come and gone, drawing the curtain on the longest NRL Fantasy Season in history. In this three-part edition, I go through my 2023 season and the thought process behind my moves. If you would like to conduct your own season review, I recommend taking a look at this article I wrote in 2022.
After 27 rounds, I finished with a classic rank of 649. Overall, I’m not too dissatisfied given my slow start and was able to work my way back to a comfortable finish inside the top 1k.
In Part Three, I cover rounds 21 to 27 as I sprint to the line for the highest classic rank possible. I also cover all the key takeaways from season 2023 that coaches can take into season 2024. But first let’s go through the final seven rounds as I enter round 21 ranked 1,292nd.
Round 21 – 1,074 points (18,520 total), Rank 874, $43k ITB
With seven trades left in reserve, the temptation to make some moves was certainly there. I knew at least one of Shawn Blore or James Fisher-Harris would need to be traded out to balance out my top 17 and was looking pair one of them with J’Maine Hopgood in order to bring in Cameron Murray and Tyson Frizell. But with Shawn Blore a late withdrawal before kick-off, I held off making trades this week as I wanted to deal Blore but also wait and see how Nathan Cleary fared in his return. Fantasy is a funny game, as evidenced by my best score to date seeing me enter the top 1k for the first time this season.
Round 22 – 901 points (19,421 total), Rank 945, $30k ITB
After a quite game from the Chin on his return and Trindall cannibalising Nicho Hynes’ output, I knew this week was the one to bring back Nathan Cleary ($940k). Carrying a quad injury, I knew it was time to sell Shawn Blore ($590k, $111k gain) and cashed him down to Dan Russell ($265k) who looked a solid option. The re-acquisition of Cleary saw the departure of his Panthers teammate James Fisher-Harris ($535k, $49k loss). With the other pair of trades, I decided to decrease my Parramatta contingent from three to one by selling J’Maine Hopgood ($802k, $31k gain) and Ryan Matterson ($639k, $117k loss) for Cameron Murray ($676k) and Tyson Frizell ($698k). These moves were a calculated gamble that coaches will struggle to field a full 17 in round 27, which should now not be a problem for me. With most of my PODs struggling, I slid back 71 ranks but have some comfort in still having three trades.
Round 23 – 1,134 points (20,555 total), Rank 880, $30k ITB
With the Bulldogs having the standalone bye, I had 19 players with my weakest assets in Talau and Hands being red dots and thus held off trades. Having just saw what happened to Jack de Belin, I was keen to hold onto my three remaining trades as deep as possible into the season. With the HLFs trio of Cleary, Hynes and Johnson going large it meant massive team scores everywhere. Considering this, I was happy to gain 65 ranks with a round 23 rank of 4,127.
Round 24 - 943 points (21,498 total), Rank 793, $91k ITB
Holding trades in the previous aged perfectly; not only because of my round score but I picked up an injury. Despite looking like he’d only miss a week, it was time to say goodbye to Zac Lomax ($721k, $220k gain) as I was short a WFB/CTR due to Scott Drinkwater on the bye. My best purchase in 2023 by some distance, Lomax was a $66k upgrade on peaked cashie Katoa and left my team being the most expensive CTR in the game. With juicy fixtures in rounds 26 and 27 in the form of the Bulldogs and Tigers, I decided to pick up Reuben Garrick ($660k) to avoid anti-PODing a player with over 60% ownership in the top 1k. Overall a low-scoring round compared the previous, I was happy to climb another 87 ranks to move into a season-high rank.
Round 25 – 1,034 points (22,532 total), Rank 769, $91k ITB
With 19 green dots, I elected to hold onto my final two trades into round 26 knowing that I would need them to replaced injured, suspended or rested players. As a result, I didn’t climb as many ranks as I otherwise would have but still managed to climb another 24 ranks.
Round 26 – 999 points (23,531 total), Rank 652, $129k ITB
As expected, the chaos arrived leaving me with just 15 green dots before trades. With Nicho Hynes ruled out, I gambled on him not being available in round 27 and traded him out ($885k, $78k loss) for Payne Haas ($847k) as I saw him as the best points scorer in the final 2 rounds. I did ponder trading Reuben Garrick out for Dane Gagai, but held off as I knew I would probably need the trade next week on a most expensive asset. With 16 green dots, I kept the ascension up the ranks going and leaving myself a puncher’s chance of top 500.
Round 27 – 703 points (24,234 total), Rank 649, $96k ITB
If Round 26 was a twister, Round 27 was a full-on cyclone. Due to all the restings, I had just nine green dots available before trades. And to add insult to injury, Nicho Hynes was named and played (unlike Payne Haas). I used my final trade on the suspended Corey Horsburgh ($760k, $137k gain) and brought in David Fifita ($793k) as a ceiling option. With big scores galore, I was more than happy to essentially hold rank to finish up in 2023.
With 27 rounds in the book, here are my lessons that I learned in 2023:
Run with the pack – Whilst filling the side full of PODs can be fun, running with the pack on the big decisions (such as picking Harry Grant) would have seen me not drift too far behind in the early rounds.
Chase the cash cows early – I hesitating in picking up the likes of Bryce Cartwright, Michael Chee Kam and co, which resulted in me falling behind.
Don’t be afraid to cut bait – if a player that you were planning to trade out for origin is trending down, it is okay to trade them early before they bottom-out. Case in point, Cameron Murray before Magic Round.
Ride the waves – if players rebound after a poor start (think Kalyn Ponga, Scott Drinkwater) and start to score well, don’t be afraid to jump on even if you miss their first 2-3 rounds of good scores. No point compounding a mistake whilst there’s still value in the player!
Don’t rush the bye planning – building slowly into the first major bye round and leaving yourself with 2-3 players to complete your 13 is best practise. Injuries and suspensions (like Jayden Brailey) will happen.
Beware the standalone byes – these rounds can punish coaches that have too many players from one team. Round 11 was a very poor round for me due to 3 Dolphins players on the bye.
Quality, not quantity – as we saw in round 13, you can post a very competitive score with 10-11 quality players that will match even those with a full 13.
Be care of oversubscription in the major byes (13, 16, 19) – you can only field a starting 13 so avoid having excess players in position where possible.
Respect the minor byes (14, 17, 20) – you need to field 17 players in these rounds, so avoid trading into red dots when these rounds are on the horizon. Plenty of coaches got caught out in round 17 by acquiring too many Sharks/Tigers/Dogs, playing short and/or burning valuable trades before the round 20 ‘boost’.
Lose the battle, win the war – when a gun player gets injured/suspended and you’re not sure who to replace them with, don’t be afraid to wait one more week to get the clarity needed. Best example for me was waiting an extra week to replace Nathan Cleary with either Mitchell Moses or Nicho Hynes, when Hynes became the clear best pick.
Top shelf at the business end – you want to preserve your final ‘bonus’ trades to bring in big fish and react to chaos (injuries/suspensions etc). Using these trades on ‘cosmetic’ upgrades when carnage will hit your team at some point is not the most efficient use of trades.
Can’t claw it all back at once – as I can attest to with my season, you can’t climb back up the ranks in just one round. You need to be patient, making the trades that will help your long term prospects instead of chasing points.
And there you have it, the second season of The Mercato is in the books. Echoing the thoughts of TK, I’d like to say a massive thank you to all the Talking League community who have supported the podcast in all formats. As I say on the podcast all the time, the only difference between us and our listeners is we have a microphone in front of us but are still having the same conversations that you and your mates have. Enjoy the off-season, keep your eyes peeled for a reaction edition of The Mercato when the 2024 draw drops but otherwise, I’ll catch you in 2024!