TK's simple guide to the Canberra Raiders fantasy prospects for 2025.
The Raiders missed the finals on for and against in 2024 with a respectful 9th place. They started well before fading when Fogarty got injured. They haven't made any significant signings that will have the competition worried and will again run the gauntlet on the health of Fogarty.
Prediction - May sneak into the 8 if Fogarty plays the entire season.
Raiders 2025 Player Movements
2025 Gains |
Myles Martin (Newcastle Knights, 2027), Matty Nicholson (Warrington Wolves, 2027), Ethan Sanders (Parramatta Eels, 2027), Savelio Tamale (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2026) |
2025 Loses |
Nick Cotric (Catalans Dragons), Peter Hola (Norths Devils), Hohepa Puru (Cronulla Sharks), Jordan Rapana (Hull FC), James Schiller (Newcastle Knights), Adrian Trevilyan (Northern Pride), Elliott Whitehead (Catalans Dragons), Zac Woolford (Huddersfield Giants) |
Look pretty set for round 1. One of Nicholson or Hosking should replace Whitehead on an edge. They do have a number of middles so the bench could change particularly if Levi is not carried. Horsburgh did start the final two games at prop and with an aging Papa, that could again be on the cards. The Draw and Game Day Squad
Byes - round 15, 19, 24
Game Day Squad allows a true focus on weekly match ups. Outside backs like Weekes and Timoko will be good plays in the following match up:
NRL Fantasy perspective
Play the first 14 games and 17 of the first 18 which includes 2 major bye rounds in round 12 and 18. So load up early as with two later byes the players start to lose value.
Fantasy relevant players for round 1 - Jamal Fogarty, Zac Hosking, Corey Horsburgh, Tom Starling, Savelio Tamale
2025 NRL Fantasy Fortunes (slide across to view full notes)
Player | Price | NRL Fantasy Av | GameDay Squad Av | Notes |
Joseph Tapine | $717K | 53.7 | 51.5 | Always an enjoyable player to own but for round 1 seems to be more value in his position. Avoid for now but you will own him at some stage especially in the Origin period. |
Hudson Young | $713K | 53.4 | 50.2 | Paying full price for a gun edge from round 1 is never a great idea especially for a non dual. Came out of the blocks slow in 2024, not hitting a 50+ score till round 5. Avoid |
Jamal Fogarty | $705K | 52.8 | 55.5 | Prior to his injury game in round 7 he was averaging 60 and should continue to dominate with their style of play. No byes till round 15 makes him an interesting choice. Don't like his contract distractions. |
Morgan Smithies | $600K | 45 | 43.2 | Does all the hard work but that’s about it. If he could offload or break some tackles would be a gun. Will lose EDG tag also. Avoid |
Zac Hosking | $582K | 43.6 | 42.9 | Averaged 51 starting on an edge in 4 games and that includes two games where he only played 43 and 32 mins. Playing big mins he scored 69 and 93. Super fantasy relevant as not only does he defend well but he has attacking attributes. Looks well under priced to begin the season but his injury may have cost him a startling role. Keep on the watchlist |
Kaeo Weekes | $550K | 42.6 | 44.6 | Another great cashie for 2024. Did most of his damage replacing Fogarty at halfback where he av 51.3. When moved to fullback where he will likely start, he average dropped to 36.9. Avoid |
Corey Horsburgh | $550K | 40.6 | 39 | Sticky just fell out of love with our loveable red head for most of the season. Did finish the season with scores of 56 amd 55 in 50.5 mins av. Papa is aging so if he pushes to starting prop could be a strong go. If he starts he may be my bounce back BUY. |
Matt Timoko | $510K | 38.2 | 38.3 | Was great in the opening 7 rounds where he averaged 48.5 before falling off a cliff when Fogarty got hurt (he lost 7 points per round without him). Too expensive to punt on early. Avoid |
Josh Papali'i | $501K | 37.5 | 38 | Aging player at the back end of career which means his minutes are getting stripped lower. At 41 mins average just won't score well. Avoid |
Tom Starling | $450K | 30.7 | 29.5 | Started the back end of the year and averaged 50.3 in his 7 starts at hooker. If he starts you buy and ride the fun times of Ricky roulette whiich as we know has weekly changes. |
Ethan Strange | $482K | 36.1 | 40.1 | Had some good games and should improve but lets be honest this is Fogs team so the upside is minimal. Avoid |
Seb Kris | $410K | 30.7 | 31.8 | Got me good with some of his previous years stats. Was like an old car that needs a jump start on the daily. Avoid |
Ata Mariota | $405K | 30.3 | 28.9 | Rarely starts as his good playing his role from the bench. In 6 games playing over 40 mins he averaged 43.7 in 61.9 mins. Would need mass injuries to be relevant. Avoid |
Albert Hopoate | $402K | 30.1 | 30 | Started the season as the best player in his family and ended it as second best. Even with a 34.8 av on the wing, just limited upside as he doesn't score enough tries. Avoid |
Simi Sasagi | $384K | 28.8 | 26.9 | Seems to be 18th man every week. Did finish with scores of 43 and 48 when everyone was hurt. Too far down the depth chart. Avoid. |
Adam Cook | TBA | 28.5 | 28.3 | The back to the halves did see some NRL footy. Has a great boot but that’s about it. NSW Cup he had 20 games for a 48 fantasy average. |
Xavier Savage | $379K | 28.4 | 31.6 | Not a bad year just struggles for attacking stats as the Raiders do not have a dominant attacking game and I can't see that changing. Avoid |
Pasami Saulo | $377K | 28.3 | 27.7 | Will always be an interchange specialist at best. Avoid |
Trey Mooney | $361K | 27.1 | 25.8 | Finally got a good run of games off the bench. Can't see his role changing. Avoid |
Chevy Stewart | $300K | 26 | 31.7 | Showed plenty of heart in his 3 NRL games just physically was always going to be a tough ask. 16 games in NSW Cup he averaged 37.2 fantasy. Still only 19 so will improve. Watchlist |
Matty Nicholson | $450K | 0 | 0 | New recurit from Warrington where he played in the backrow. Actually score 9 tries in his 19 regular season games. He av per game 34 TCK, 2.78 MT, 55MG, 1.26 TB, 0.16OF, so literally a clone of Smithies. Avoid |
Ethan Sanders | $350K | 34 | 30.8 | Good player on the rise but would be stuck behind Fogarty and Strange. In 22 NSW Cup games he averaged 42.6 fantasy points. Avoid |
Savelio Tamale | $300K | 30 | 29.5 | Will push Hopoate for a wing spot. Limited NRL games but NSW Cup he had a solid season. 24 games he scored 12 tries, 199 TB, 4 TA, 23 LB, av 186RM for a 45.4 fantasy av. BUY if he starts be he could be a trap given Hopoate only misses round 1 so accept the risk. |
Jordan Martin | $250K | 0 | 0 | 24 year old backrower yet to debut. Would be well behind on the depth chart. Played 15 NSW cup games for a 28.7 av. Avoid |
Myles Martin | $230K | 0 | 0 | 20 year old lock signed from the Knights. Only 3 NSW cup games for 8 av in limited minutes. Avoid |
Michael Asomua | $230K | 0 | 0 | 21 year old winger who would be deep on the depth chat. 12 NSW cup games for only 4 tries and 29.9 av. Avoid |
Vena Patuki-Case | $230K | 0 | 0 | Towering, 20 year old prop. Started in jersey flegg before injury ruled him out for the year. Would be very far behind on the depth chart. Avoid |
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