TK's Black Book - Canberra Raiders

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TK's simple guide to the Canberra Raiders fantasy prospects for 2025.

The Raiders missed the finals on for and against in 2024 with a respectful 9th place. They started well before fading when Fogarty got injured. They haven't made any significant signings that will have the competition worried and will again run the gauntlet on the health of Fogarty.

Prediction - May sneak into the 8 if Fogarty plays the entire season.

Raiders 2025 Player Movements

2025 Gains

Myles Martin (Newcastle Knights, 2027), Matty Nicholson (Warrington Wolves, 2027), Ethan Sanders (Parramatta Eels, 2027), Savelio Tamale (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2026)

2025 Loses

Nick Cotric (Catalans Dragons), Peter Hola (Norths Devils), Hohepa Puru (Cronulla Sharks), Jordan Rapana (Hull FC), James Schiller (Newcastle Knights), Adrian Trevilyan (Northern Pride), Elliott Whitehead (Catalans Dragons), Zac Woolford (Huddersfield Giants)

Look pretty set for round 1. One of Nicholson or Hosking should replace Whitehead on an edge. They do have a number of middles so the bench could change particularly if Levi is not carried. Horsburgh did start the final two games at prop and with an aging Papa, that could again be on the cards. The Draw and Game Day Squad

Byes - round 15, 19, 24

Game Day Squad allows a true focus on weekly match ups. Outside backs like Weekes and Timoko will be good plays in the following match up:

NRL Fantasy perspective

Play the first 14 games and 17 of the first 18 which includes 2 major bye rounds in round 12 and 18. So load up early as with two later byes the players start to lose value.

Fantasy relevant players for round 1 - Jamal Fogarty, Zac Hosking, Corey Horsburgh, Tom Starling, Savelio Tamale

2025 NRL Fantasy Fortunes (slide across to view full notes)

Player	Price	NRL Fantasy Av	GameDay Squad Av	Notes
Joseph Tapine	$717K	53.7	51.5	Always an enjoyable player to own but for round 1 seems to be more value in his position. Avoid for now but you will own him at some stage especially in the Origin period.
Hudson Young	$713K	53.4	50.2	Paying full price for a gun edge from round 1 is never a great idea especially for a non dual. Came out of the blocks slow in 2024, not hitting a 50+ score till round 5. Avoid
Jamal Fogarty	$705K	52.8	55.5	Prior to his injury game in round 7 he was averaging 60 and should continue to dominate with their style of play. No byes till round 15 makes him an interesting choice. Don't like his contract distractions.
Morgan Smithies	$600K	45	43.2	Does all the hard work but that’s about it. If he could offload or break some tackles would be a gun. Will lose EDG tag also. Avoid
Zac Hosking	$582K	43.6	42.9	Averaged 51 starting on an edge in 4 games and that includes two games where he only played 43 and 32 mins. Playing big mins he scored 69 and 93. Super fantasy relevant as not only does he defend well but he has attacking attributes. Looks well under priced to begin the season but his injury may have cost him a startling role. Keep on the watchlist
Kaeo Weekes	$550K	42.6	44.6	Another great cashie for 2024. Did most of his damage replacing Fogarty at halfback where he av 51.3. When moved to fullback where he will likely start, he average dropped to 36.9. Avoid
Corey Horsburgh	$550K	40.6	39	Sticky just fell out of love with our loveable red head for most of the season. Did finish the season with scores of 56 amd 55 in 50.5 mins av. Papa is aging so if he pushes to starting prop could be a strong go. If he starts he may be my bounce back BUY.
Matt Timoko	$510K	38.2	38.3	Was great in the opening 7 rounds where he averaged 48.5 before falling off a cliff when Fogarty got hurt (he lost 7 points per round without him). Too expensive to punt on early. Avoid
Josh Papali'i	$501K	37.5	38	Aging player at the back end of career which means his minutes are getting stripped lower. At 41 mins average just won't score well. Avoid
Tom Starling	$450K	30.7	29.5	Started the back end of the year and averaged 50.3 in his 7 starts at hooker. If he starts you buy and ride the fun times of Ricky roulette whiich as we know has weekly changes.
Ethan Strange	$482K	36.1	40.1	Had some good games and should improve but lets be honest this is Fogs team so the upside is minimal. Avoid
Seb Kris	$410K	30.7	31.8	Got me good with some of his previous years stats. Was like an old car that needs a jump start on the daily. Avoid
Ata Mariota	$405K	30.3	28.9	Rarely starts as his good playing his role from the bench. In 6 games playing over 40 mins he averaged 43.7 in 61.9 mins. Would need mass injuries to be relevant. Avoid
Albert Hopoate	$402K	30.1	30	Started the season as the best player in his family and ended it as second best. Even with a 34.8 av on the wing, just limited upside as he doesn't score enough tries. Avoid
Simi Sasagi	$384K	28.8	26.9	Seems to be 18th man every week. Did finish with scores of 43 and 48 when everyone was hurt. Too far down the depth chart. Avoid.
Adam Cook	TBA	28.5	28.3	The back to the halves did see some NRL footy. Has a great boot but that’s about it. NSW Cup he had 20 games for a 48 fantasy average.
Xavier Savage	$379K	28.4	31.6	Not a bad year just struggles for attacking stats as the Raiders do not have a dominant attacking game and I can't see that changing. Avoid
Pasami Saulo	$377K	28.3	27.7	Will always be an interchange specialist at best. Avoid
Trey Mooney	$361K	27.1	25.8	Finally got a good run of games off the bench. Can't see his role changing. Avoid
Chevy Stewart	$300K	26	31.7	Showed plenty of heart in his 3 NRL games just physically was always going to be a tough ask. 16 games in NSW Cup he averaged 37.2 fantasy. Still only 19 so will improve. Watchlist
Matty Nicholson	$450K	0	0	New recurit from Warrington where he played in the backrow. Actually score 9 tries in his 19 regular season games. He av per game 34 TCK, 2.78 MT, 55MG, 1.26 TB, 0.16OF, so literally a clone of Smithies. Avoid
Ethan Sanders	$350K	34	30.8	Good player on the rise but would be stuck behind Fogarty and Strange. In 22 NSW Cup games he averaged 42.6 fantasy points. Avoid
Savelio Tamale	$300K	30	29.5	Will push Hopoate for a wing spot. Limited NRL games but NSW Cup he had a solid season. 24 games he scored 12 tries, 199 TB, 4 TA, 23 LB, av 186RM for a 45.4 fantasy av. BUY if he starts be he could be a trap given Hopoate only misses round 1 so accept the risk.
Jordan Martin	$250K	0	0	24 year old backrower yet to debut. Would be well behind on the depth chart. Played 15 NSW cup games for a 28.7 av. Avoid
Myles Martin	$230K	0	0	20 year old lock signed from the Knights. Only 3 NSW cup games for 8 av in limited minutes. Avoid
Michael Asomua	$230K	0	0	21 year old winger who would be deep on the depth chat. 12 NSW cup games for only 4 tries and 29.9 av. Avoid
Vena Patuki-Case	$230K	0	0	Towering, 20 year old prop. Started in jersey flegg before injury ruled him out for the year. Would be very far behind on the depth chart. Avoid