Welcome back to TK’s playbook where I break down the winners, losers and black bookers from each game. The PlayBook article is Brought to you by - GameDay Squad. Create, Coach, Compete in Fantasy Footy. Be the coach & WIN. Download the app and play now.
Round 6
Score - 807
Rank - 8567 (from 4206)
Main takeaways
My biggest issue is still my captain. Nicho to the rescue. Sometimes you have to take a step back to take a step forward. I’ve been here before, now the challenge is the comeback. My team value is still very high and the savior after Easter Nicho Hynes is now here.
Best to admit when you're wrong. I was wrong on the Chin!!! But atleast I’m having fun as an anti Chin lol and I'm taking credit for everyone calling this bloke Chin now. I don’t get all my fantasy tips right but my narratives and sayings are best in the business.
Rome wasn’t built in a day so don’t panic. In 2021 I was 7500 after round 7, by round 13 I was top 1000, top 50 by round 23 then finished at 232.
Trades on my mind
Sam Walker to Nicho Hynes - No brainer, been lining this up for 2 weeks.
I did a mid round trade from Joseph Tapine to Ryan Matterson. The news of Tapine missing
the game as he is expecting a child was too much for me to keep him considering the
Raiders have a bye in two weeks. Tapine is not anywhere near the form of the second half of
last season, he isn’t getting above 50 minutes a game from his coach and was on my mind
to trade out any way. Given he literally doesn’t off load any more, can only imagine the stress of new father life will have on his footy with sleep and recovery. He has been scoring a heap of junk points to inflate his average. Eye test says he is not a season long keeper at that price so I cut my losses and staying clear of Ricky Stuart forever.
Player charges
Fines for Victor Radley, Coen Hess, Peta Hiku, Kodi Nikorima, Brenko Lee, Mitch Kenny
Injuries
Josh Addo-Carr - Syndesmosis (6-8 weeks)
Izaac Thompson - Ankle (scan)
Jarrod Wallace - Cat 1 HIA
Jesse Bromwich - Throat infection
Jordan Rapana - Head knock
Reuben Garrick - HIA
Karl Lawton - Shoulder
Tom Trbojevic - Back Spasms
Tom Flegler - HIA
Jayden Brailey - Right Knee same as previously injured
Te Maire Martin - Fibula fracture
Wayde Egan - HIA
Adam Doueihi - ACL
Storm vs Roosters
Observations
Money Munster with a very dominant performance. 1T, 8TB, 2TA, 193MG, 419KM. He destroyed the Roosters right edge with some cracking play. Probably not a BUY right now but would be wise to consider post origin if fully fit.
Harry Grant can’t put back to back performances together. A very unusual 45MG. I’m actually thinking of the downgrade to Robson or Jayden Brailey for the Origin period. Didn’t see out the 80 in this one and will likely be managed during Origin if they continue to be nicely placed on the ladder.
I’ve been saying for a number of weeks, reassess sells on Warbrick and Loiero come the round 9 bye. If you have Katoa you might push this a little longer.
Sam Walker set up a really nice try for Paulo. Unless you're upgrading to Hynes I’d say keep him still plenty of potential there.
Keep a track on Joey Manu and Teddy over the next few rounds. Both are coming into BUY territory as we know their fantasy prospects once they get their form and health back.
Even at around $450k, I still don’t want to go near Cheese. While his defensive output has improved, still misses too many silly tackles and for a bloke with a great running game from dummy half this is pretty much non-existent.
News of Addo Carrs injury will probably put Suaal’i as a firm favorite for a Blues wing spot. Still developing as a centre but don’t go near him till after Origin.
Black Book
None
Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs
Observations
Souths are starting to heat up. Generally when the big four of Cook, Murray, Trell and Cody are playing well in the same game, it will generally lead to a strong run of wins.
Campbell Graham is the best centre in the NRL, would love to see Freddy reward him. Great finisher, great carries and solid defender. Even showed he could be a deadly winger when pushed out to cover Thompson late in the game.
Trell Mitt doing only what Trell Mitt does. Only really did 5 things in the game and that was 3 tries and 2 try assists. The ultimate show man. Is actually a really good price but I would avoid till after Origin, even then with their byes really makes it hard to have him this year.
Tatola is an interesting one. First hit up he got up limping. Managed 19FP in 29 minutes in a steady display. Was rested from the second half. Will continue to grow in BE and will open around $486K. If he could get his knee right and his output returned, would be a BUY in the low to mid $400K. Hame Sele with great PPM performance. Might turn out to be a nice cash burn and should be in the Bunnies 17 week to week.
Jacob Preston probably was lucky he got sin binned. Was a minor hip drop and probably didn’t deserve a week so the on field action was sufficient. Continues to make some great cash and with a 50 average there is no reason to sell him to potentially the back end of the Origin schedule.
The Doggies off a 4 day turn around and so many injuries were busted. Did really well for 30 minutes before fading badly. One positive was Matt Burton picking up his running game. 2 tries and had a nice try assist overturned. He just didn’t have the troops to help him rally.
Cardboard shoulders Reed Mahoney with some impressive attacking plays. Still had 15 demerits and managed a 65FP. One of the hardest players to get a read on week to week. Overplays his hand in attack and loves to run out of the line in defence and miss. Would be too much head noise for me to handle him given I already have Staggs.
Poor Izaac Thompson. Dropped the ball over the line then got injured. To rub it in, Campbell Graham scored two tries covering for him on the right wing. Will be sell if the injury is over 2 weeks.
Don’t worry about Alamoti’s 18FP, the kid got pushed to the left wing to cover Addo Carr and actually had some really good plays but was caught out as he really isn’t a winger. No need to even consider selling Alamoti yet, still making good coin.
Black Book
Tatola on the watchlist. Sele a good cash down also.
Cowboys vs Dolphins
Observations
The Hammer continues to torment every one that anti-podded him. Playing so well could see him in the extended Queensland squad given his ability to cover fullback, centre and wing. Classy performance week in and week out.
Jamayne Isaako is averaging 53 FP. A career year under Uncle Wayne full of great finished and work rate. I can’t go there but if you’re backing the Fins to continue their giant killing ways well the attack does shape left and he kicks goals blind folded.
Lemuelu just hit his mid 30’s in base. Would like to see him pick up his running game. Until that happens it would be well off keeper territory. Despite some good fantasy outputs from the likes of Ese’ese, it is hard to go there with both Jesse Bromwich to return next week and Kaufusi in a couple of weeks.
With the keys to the castle, Isaiya Katoa could be a very nice cashie. Will need to dramatically fix up his defensive deficiencies but this is difficult mid year. Had 7 miss tackles in this one and has an average of 4.6 MT a game. Showed a nice kicking game and with 395KM as the main half. Still developing so not the worst pick up but will be a slow burn.
Seriously, how good is Kodi Nikorimas calves? The baby cows just pop, which was more than his fantasy output did. Stay clear of this guy as he doesn’t do much of anything really and lost $8k.
Reuben Cotter is an interesting one. His PPM has dropped dramatically this year from 0.91 to 0.79 and he is only averaging 45. Will lose more money and given his run of injuries and likely Origin selection not a BUY. But sometimes these players will get to a price where they are too good to turn down. Big Griffin Neame did well to knock out 80 minutes on an edge. He did concede some miss tackles playing these big minutes, still weird to see him parked there.
Scott Drinkwater is a massive concern. Despite 2 TA’s he could only manage 27FP. Last year he averaged 143MG, 0.6T, 0.8TA, 3.5TB and 1.3OF and in comparison this year despite the suspension has an average of 104MG, 0.7T, 0.7TA, 2 TB and 0.3OF. Still an attacking threat but down on output. I wouldn’t rely on this on a week to week basis, way better WFB’s to consider. 2% of owners should SELL him.
Robson, much like Grant, is just struggling to find week to week consistency. Given the $100k difference and the Origin period, I’d prefer to be a Robson holder ATM. Had an usual 55MG only, his season average is 79.
With a negative BE, Chester owners made $10k despite him only playing 11 minutes and scoring 4FP. 6% owned so you should all be SELLING him this week. Keep an eye on Sean Russell at the Eels or a cash down to Sele or Katoa if you’re not an owner.
Black Book
None
Panthers vs Sea Eagles
Observations
This Chin game is amazing. Stills fun and depressing all in one. One notable difference since the bye is Penriths balance of offense left and right. This was confirmed by Chin post game when he said they rebalanced due to heavy reliance on going left because of Kikau. Great balanced performance by Chin and has taken me to school. I’m no longer recommending buying or selling Chin but Cleary tons are now called “CHINING”.
Edwards just reminded us of his elite quality. Score 98FP with 4 tries. Now averaging 62 across his 5 games with a floor of 44. Great base and despite his form would be literally no chance for Origin. If I was a Turbo owner and had some cash I would consider a straight swap. If you can’t afford Edwards then I really like what I’m seeing from Turuva. He’s really a fullback but now settling on the wing, last 3 of 40,44,56 and also has great base so consider him if you need a downgrade.
Zack Hosking with another solid performance. You would think him and Chin been playing together for years. This guy will make bank for you.
Soni Luke will be a great cashdown. Only issue is the HIA’s but played some good minutes and set up the final try for Cleary with a classy grubber. The 7.5% of coaches holding Mitch Kenny need to sell him while there is still value. He needs huge minutes to be relevant and it's just not there in this system.
Lindsay Smith only saw 27 minutes, my issue was always the job security, particularly if Martin returns and sends Soro back to the mid rotation which is highly likely.
I’m not liking what I see out of Turbo. Was clearly uncomfortable, then post game revealed he had back spasms. Lost $25k in this one. Their draw ahead is Melbourne, Tigers and Gold Coast. So it's hard to sell him before those 3 games. However start planning out your Origin period ejection (two Panthers boys just mentioned are great).
Garrick owners in a spot of bother. Not only did he lose $40k but will likely miss next week with a failed HIA. He’s a hold given the games ahead but just shows how the Fantasy gods can kill you any time they want.
Keppie is back to his old ways. Was bothered by his knee last week and may be reduced minutes indicating this. Hard though to enter a game and be so far behind and make an impact.
Kaeo Weekes is not a half and they targeted him throughout. Saving grace was the Garrick HIA which pushed him out wide. Super talented kid but that's just asking for trouble by playing him so far out of position at this level.
Black Book
Turuva and Weekes watchlist
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The next live podcast will be Saturday 6th May at Magic round weekend. Meet and greet from 12pm and live podcast at 1pm. The venue is Leftys music hall Caxton street across the road from Suncorp Stadium. Come hang out with TK, Andy, Corby, Riley, Rich, Jake, Robo and Sean. Entry is free just get in early for some banter and beers, first game for the day is 3pm with the Warriors and Panthers.
Broncos vs Raiders
Observations
Pat Carrigan we recommended selling a couple of weeks ago and I still think he is. Not an immediate one if you have other issues but is not a hold into the Origin period. Played 76 minutes because of the scoreboard and the Flegler HIA. Could only manage 51FP and the reason is attacking stats. He’s a great link man but you don’t get extra points for this.
Eyeliner Walshy is the most exciting player in the NRL. Scored a great 68FP which could of been more when he passed to Cobbo instead of backing himself to score. The news on Ponga and also Hammers form and versatility might see him not even in the QLD squad. You can hate on me for Cleary but not Walshy lol.
Adam Reynolds goal kicking is a little concerning. Is at a career low of 68% and his career average is 82%. He needs these points to be of value. Monitor this as at what point do they move to Staggs or Walshy.
Big shout out to Jarrod Croker and his return to the NRL. Great guy off the field and had a really decent game. One of the best goal kickers in the NRL and cheap. Hard to recommend him given that Savage is returning surely after the bye and then Kris needs to move somewhere. One of the best sharpshooters in the NRL and proved to be the difference between the teams in that area.
With no Wighton, Fogarty stepped up in a big way for his best game of the season. 516KM, 83MG, 5TB and 1 TA. He scored 67FP without goal kicking. $600K is cheap for his quality so keep on your Origin period radar as he is one of only a couple of players you have any faith in Sticky not messing around with.
Big Papa was huge in this one. Not on a fantasy front but he laid the intentions with two hit ups in the opening set of six. Corey Horsburgh with 49FP in 72 minutes with just his usual consistency. If I could get in writing from Sticky that he got 72 minutes every week then at $586K he would be a BUY. I’m now out of Canberra forwards now and even when players like Hudson Young are so cheap it's just not worth the head noise.
Black Book
Fogarty on the watchlist as an underpriced option.
Titans vs Dragons
Observations
Sexton smashed it in this one. They moved him to the right and Boyd to the left and Sexton played like the 7 dominating on ball and the kicking (423KM). Slight concern for us Boyd owners because he plays like a 7 and is good at it. The thing in Boyds favor is goal kicking as they could have easily taken that away from him. 50/50 proposition atm but really we will know more when Foran returns in a couple of weeks. Boyd did well for his 35FP despite only 34KM and 11 demerits.
Jayden Campbell was electric through and finished on 68FP. Never a doubt that he is a first grade FB so they have a decision to make on where to place Brimo. In normal circumstances he would be a BUY at this price but there is just so much uncertainty over his role with Brimson tipped for a round 8 return according to the Titans.
Fifita had some good moments. The great thing about him is he is averaging 58 without scoring a try which will come. Could be handy back end of the Origin period as likely right now he would be outside the top 17.
If you can get Jack Bird right now is the time to buy him. Has a few demerits which is unusual against the smaller guys however he’s doing his thing in the middle. Not really a traditional 13 link like Radley or Carrigan but has some nice tap on play. It’s my goal to get him for the Origin period.
Ben Hunt is in pretty good form and back to back huge scores. This close to Origin he is probably not the best pick up and I do expect him to have a huge role once again for QLD. It's just timing on this one not the quality of the player.
Keep Zac Lomax on the watchlist. Is bleeding cash however is returning to form with back to back games with tries. He is a quality player with current issues with his hands and defence (av 3MT). However if he gets to mid 400’sK and some of these issues start reversing then he has a track record of relevance. Dragons draw ahead is Canberra, Roosters, Dogs, Tigers and Cowboys.
Poor games from the cashies - BMM, Khan-Pereira and Sloan. I don’t think we will ever have middle ground with these guys, it's either a ceiling or floor on the weekly. Somehow with low or negative BE’s they all made money. Sloan was frustrating to watch particularly with the bomb try off Ravalawa even though it was probably more the flying Fijians fault.
Close the book on Baby Tino. Only got 22 minutes. Was always a need to have another look to judge his minutes. Does some good things but the consistent minutes are too hard to predict.
Black Book
Keep an eye on Lomax.
Knights vs Warriors
Observations
Frizell continues to kill it and is dirt cheap for his output. If you take out his HIA game from round 1 and ankle injury from round 2, his real average is 66 over the last 3 games.
Brailey owners will be in a bit of bother. At least he made his 42BE to not lose money on the $604K. He did appear of great value heading into the Origin period. Owners will probably have to adjust up to Robson as the only players around his price is Api or Blayke Brailey. Who neither are buys. Cheese is left field if you don’t want to spend and one that could be handy is Jeremey Marshall King who has no threat of Origin and is averaging 54 including two games of 60+.
Declining games from Leo Thompson, Jack Johns and Matt Croker who all failed to deliver on recent good fantasy form. Keep holding for the time being, I just wouldn't BUY.
That was Bradman Best’s best game for years. Slick performance with 3TA and some great base stats. If he could play like that on the weekly he would be an Origin player.
Josh Curran had a good game which included 58 tackles. No idea how he survived an head knock and not to get checked but he looked boardline dead at that stage. Did have 6 miss tackles and that was the message I got when I caught up with Justin Morgan over in NZ. Actually loses money but he's really just warming the starting spot for Marata Niukore.
Kurt Mann will be an interesting one if Brailey is long term. They literally have no other hookers in the squad so will be the likely next man up. Will be around $510k and has the weird HLF/MID dual. In 7 games playing hooker in 2020 covering again for the injured Brailey. He averaged 55.6 so could be handy.
Looks like a long term injury to TMM. Warriors did send Metcalf to Philadelphia for treatment on his hamstring. Probably expect a combo or Volkman and Walker. Wahs have a grueling schedule of Cowboys, Melbourne, Roosters and Penrith ahead.
Black Book
Keep an eye on Kurt Mann.
Tigers vs Eels
Observations
Mitch Moses on point in this one. Great form for 4 TA. Unfortunately most came from kicks so he didn't get any added points. Dyl Bags had lively game. Keep him on your radar as once Lane settles into the season I think he will flourish.
Ryan Matterson was out the blocks slow but worked his way into the game. Given no offloads and 8 demerits you'll take 57FP all day.
Adam Doueihi such bad luck. Looks like an ACL. Was actually lively as expected in the 6 jersey. Not sure where they go to from here without their best player.
Api Koroisau came back to life in this second half. Was crafty and owned the last 10 minutes. Had a beautiful forced in goal ruined by Staines drop of Gutho's drop out. Must be having head noise on the daily.
Hopgood got 53 straight minutes off the bench. Just remember he is a rookie, he is going to have up and down patches during the season. I feel your crazy to sell him going into the Origin break.
Sean Russell did a few good things. Not a buy yet you would want to evaluate a sample in the left centre spot.
I don't mind the young winger Junior Tupou. Robo tipped him off a few weeks back. Runs with purpose and a big kid in a break out game. Monitor his progress as he is currently only CTR and with scores of 35,30,23 you would be rushing in hoping for a repeat effort.
Black Book
Tupou and Russell.
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