Welcome to Fast 5, an article where I give a quick summary on 5 interesting trade options for the round. This will include the top 4 most popular trade ins as of Thursday, plus my POD of the week for those looking to stray away from the pack.
Ezra Mam $325k (BE -13) Ownership: 10.6% (+3.69%)
Ezra has looked very fantasy relevant in his first two games in first grade with a great average of 51 which has seen his BE drop to -13. Interestingly, he has had a very solid base of 33 from purely run metres and tackles with almost zero kick metres. With the inclusion of Reynolds back into the Bronco’s side, I would assume Mam’s role as a ball running half isn’t going to change with Reynolds taking the kicking duties. Buyers should note that there will be games where Mam doesn’t get the attacking stats, especially against the Storm in round 15 and the Cowboys in round 16, so an average of 30-40 is probably a more reasonable assumption than 51. Additionally, the leg injury to Gamble is still unknown at time of writing, which makes the decision a lot harder.
Final Decision: YES – only if Gamble is out long term.
Xavier Savage 263k (BE -10) Ownership: 19.9% (+3.00%)
Savage came into round 13 as a great basement price cash out, who ended up rewarding coaches with a great score of 52. However, picking him up in round 14 is a harder decision. Going back over his 4 career starts at fullback he has an average of 43.5 which includes 2 tries. Although this is a small sample size, he has averaged 23 points in base stats (run metres and tackles) across these games which should give him a nice floor for a cash cow at his price. The other factor to consider is his job security with CNK due back from injury round 18. This would give Savage 3 games (Does not play round 17) in the fullback position before potentially moving back to the bench or 18th man, however if the Raiders keep playing well and notch up a few more wins, Ricky may be inclined to keep him in the number 1 jersey.
Final decision: YES – but understand the risk, no players are safe with a Ricky Stuart coached side.
Reed Mahoney 709k (BE 49) Ownership: 9.0% (+1.48%)
Reed’s average this season has dropped significantly compared to last season with an average of 48.7 per game and 50.0 in his 80 minutes performances. In saying that, he does become an interesting option for this week as he will play round 17 unless there is an injury to one of the Maroon’s hookers Ben Hunt and Harry Grant. In terms of fantasy, he is currently the 2nd highest averaging non-origin HOK, just behind Reece Robson who doesn’t play round 17. There is also a chance that the 3 highest HOK options in Cook, Grant, and Cotter may be rested or have their minutes managed throughout the origin period. This makes Mahoney a great option as hooker cover for this week, who has a decent enough average to keep a bench spot in your final 17.
Final Decision: YES
Jason Taumalolo $559k (BE 49) Ownership: 8.5% (+1.45%)
Taumalolo bounced back in a big way for coaches that held him for round 13 with a 69 in 66 minutes. I do expect these minutes to continue over the next 3 weeks as Cotter may be rested or have his minutes managed due to it being his first origin series. The problem I see with Taumalolo is that he probably isn’t going to average well enough for the rest of the season to be a keeper in your final 17. His current average of 44 is certainly go up in the next few weeks and he may make a small amount of cash, however I can see him returning to his normal role of around 50 minutes post round 18.
Final Decision: NO
Jake’s POD of the week
Jahrome Hughes $659k (BE 65) Ownership: 8.6% (0% Top 100, 1.1% top 1000, 2.26% top 5000)
I had a dive into Hughes past season’s stats this week and have found an interesting trend about his scores throughout the year. I separated his scores into pre-origin (rounds 1-12), during origin (rounds 13-18), and post-origin (rounds 19-25), where I included round 18 since a lot of players get rested in that round. What I found was that Hughes has an uptick in points over the origin period, then goes back to his normal scoring posting origin.
Pre-origin (rounds 1-12): AVG 60.2 During origin (rounds 13-18): AVG 71.8 Post-origin (rounds 19-25): AVG 55.8
Hughes this year has seen a reduce in points down to an average of 48.7, most likely due to the kick metre/tackle break nerf and the game slowing down a little bit. In saying this, I have a feeling that this trend might continue with the likes of Cameron Munster and Harry Grant focusing on origin and maybe getting a rest at some stage. The appeal I see in Hughes is that he ineligible for origin, which means he will play round 17 if fit. If he is going to have an average of just over 50 from this round onwards, he could be a great INT player as your 3rd HLF in your final 17, to complement the likes of Cleary and DCE.
As always, big shout out to footystatistics.com, which is where I do all my statistical research. Good luck to everyone for the week ahead, let’s hope all our origin players back up!