Welcome to Falling Gun, a weekly article where I will analyse the form, output and price of current and former guns to determine the best time for you to pick them up on the run home. Each week, I will focus on three guns from one position that everyone could include in their final teams.
As most of us are trying to strengthen our wing/fullback position, this week I will be looking at Brian To’o, James Tedesco and Clint Gutherson.
Brian To’o (555k) (BE 21) (Owned by 9% in Top 100, 6.8% in Top 1000 and 6.46% in Top 5000) – Buy now as a top five wing/fullback keeper.
To’o has suddenly looked very fantasy relevant after an uptick in his tackle busts and run metres within recent performances against Queensland and the Knights. After being someone who was highly owned by the top fantasy teams in 2021, To’o has lost 196k this year and bottomed out at 517k after his score of 76 last week. In a breakout 2021 year, To’o averaged 59 points across 18 games, accumulating a reliable 41 points in base stats under the new scoring system through an average of 250 run metres, 6 tackle busts and 4 tackles per game. To’o has scored 44 points (without a try) and 76 points (with two tries) in games this year where he had run for more than 200 metres, with Izack Tago running for his third and fourth least number of metres in 2022 when this occurred in Rounds 9 and 14. As he has now worked backed to full fitness after suffering an MCL injury and been shifted to the Panther’s right side that is seeing more football in attacking field positions, To’o has plenty of try scoring upside through playing in the best attacking team in the NRL. Although you may want to give him a third date to ensure he is able to maintain this uptick in work rate, To’o is poised to make close to 100k in the next four weeks with Round 14’s score of 76 in his current rolling average.
James Tedesco (799k) (BE 76) (Owned by 23% in Top 100, 29.60% in Top 1000 and 27% in Top 5000) – Hold otherwise watch for non-owners, becoming an immediate pick-up priced at 710k – 750k after Game Three of State of Origin providing he is not injured or rested.
Tedesco is a proven fantasy gun who in games over 70 minutes has averaged 61 points in 2021, 65 points in 2020 and 60 points in 2019. He is a must have in everyone’s final team as a top two wing/fullback option. While his run metres have slightly increased and ensured of a mid-level base stat floor, bounce back factor and a significant uptick in consistent attacking stats including line breaks, tries, try assists and tackle busts have resulted in him averaging an extra 27 points per game in Rounds 7-12 compared to Rounds 1-6. Last week against the Storm, Tedesco’s attacking skillset was nullified, with this reflected in his Round 14 score and resulting in him losing 22k. With State of Origin, upcoming games against the Eels and Panthers, the Roosters’ bye and a score of 35 in his five-game rolling average, Teddy is set to quickly lose cash if he cannot reach his higher breakeven in the coming weeks. With the Roosters’ spine combinations improving and a favourable draw, Teddy from Round 18 onwards has the capabilities to average 60 points per game through facing four bottom eight teams.
Clint Gutherson (522k) (BE 56) (Owned by 3% in Top 100, 3.7% in Top 1000 and 3.9% in Top 5000) – He is not a top five wing/fullback option. Sell after Round 17 if you are an owner otherwise avoid.
Gutho has failed to consistently perform this season but is the leader of a fantasy relevant Eels’ team that plays in Round 17. The rise of Dylan Brown’s offensive game resulting in getter run metres, tries and try assists and line breaks and line break assists has meant Gutho is less relied on in attacking field positions. In 2021 across 23 games where he played over 65 minutes, Gutho averaged 51 points per game under the old scoring system compared to only 39.5 points per game this season, registering only three scores above 50. As a comparison between his stats across the first 14 rounds in 2021 and 2022, so far this season he has had six less tries and try assists, 5 fewer line breaks and a cutback in line break assists by 8. At a breakeven of 56 and with an upcoming mediocre draw where Brown and Moses will continue to lead the Eels’ attack, he is a mid-range option with only a run metre base, meaning he will hover around 500k and not allow you to later cash out to a top gun.
That’s a wrap for Falling Gun in Round 15. Be sure to check out Talking League’s weekly podcasts as well as other articles published. Remember, strategy and planning for trading in guns at their lowest price is key to maximising your team’s value.